Journal of Economic Studies and Financial Research (e-ISSN: 2584-1629)

Human Capital and Macroeconomic Stability in Tanzania: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2026-07-07T10:48:53+00:00

The study examines the relationship between human capital development and macroeconomic stability in Tanzania, employing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. Human capital, encompassing education, health, and workforce skills, is critical for economic growth and resilience. Despite significant investments in education and healthcare, Tanzania continues to face macroeconomic instability marked by inflation, unemployment, and economic volatility. The study spans 1985–2024, revealing that while human capital has grown due to reforms and technological advancements, macroeconomic instability persists. This suggests that the benefits of human capital investments are not fully realized in fostering economic stability. The findings highlight both short- and long-term dynamics, with mixed evidence on causality between human capital and economic growth. The research underscores the complexity of translating human capital improvements into stable macroeconomic outcomes and emphasizes the need for targeted policies. Recommendations include prioritizing fiscal policies over monetary interventions, enhancing institutional frameworks, and fostering inclusive growth strategies.

Short-Run and Long-Run Dynamics of Sri Lanka’s Tea Exports: Evidence from an ARDL Model

2026-05-22T12:21:41+00:00

Ceylon tea is world-famous and a major contributing factor to Sri Lanka’s economy, but the amount of tea exported has been dropping for several years. This study looks at three main reasons behind this decline, namely yearly exchange rate, economic growth (GDP), and yearly rainfall (YR). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to examine annual time-series data from 2000 to 2024. The main sources of information used in this study are the World Bank, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), and the Tea Board of Sri Lanka. The model’s results demonstrate that, both in the short and long term, changes in the exchange rate have a significantly negative effect on tea export volume. This occurs because a depreciating currency makes imported agricultural supplies more expensive, which ultimately limits how much tea can be produced. Yearly rainfall demonstrates a positive short-run influence on exports but yields no significant long-run effect, reflecting the adaptive capacity of tea plantations over time. The economic growth rate shows a significant positive impact in the short-term and long-term. This indicates how macroeconomic expansion strengthens export logistics, productive capacity, and trade infrastructure. A key limitation is the exclusion of structural break variables to account for the 2021 fertilizer import ban and the 2021–2022 economic crisis.

Economic Implications of the 'Priyadarshini' Free Bus Travel Scheme on Women Empowerment, Public Transport, and Regional Welfare in Kerala

2026-08-01T11:07:02+00:00

On June 15, 2026, the Government of Kerala introduced the “Priyadarshini Scheme,” an institutional program guaranteeing fare-free public transit to all women and transgender individuals on conventional bus services offered by the Kerala State Road Transport Corporation (KSRTC). Implemented throughout a fleet of 3,125 regular buses without demographic, financial, or documentation constraints, this universal mobility approach redefines regional public transit from a commercial commodity into an important public utility. This study report examines the multi-dimensional economic effects of the project on regional welfare, gender equity, and state infrastructure. At the microeconomic level, the study analyses how reducing daily travel expenses promotes the spatial autonomy of female job seekers, eliminates barriers to low-wage employment, and raises real household disposable income. Initial operational measurements reveal a remarkable initial adoption rate, with 1,329,938 female passengers using the network on its first day alone, corresponding to a daily systemic fare-value redistribution of ₹15,956,801 back into the local consumer market. Furthermore, the establishment of a 15-kilogram free luggage allowance considerably subsidizes small-scale female entrepreneurs and informal micro-enterprises. From an institutional approach, the study investigates the operational alterations inside KSRTC, focusing on the mandated “Zero-Fare Ticket” system as a data-driven instrument for route optimization, capacity management, and fiscal auditing. Finally, the article simulates the larger macroeconomic externalities of the program, revealing how a targeted modal shift from private two-wheelers to high-occupancy state buses mitigates urban traffic congestion and reduces carbon emissions. Ultimately, the paper provides policy frameworks to balance the upfront fiscal costs of state subsidies versus long-term socio-economic growth.